aluminium expo |Aluminum: Limited global growth, promising future demand .
On the supply side, domestic production is nearing its capacity ceiling. Yunnan province still faces a power shortage in the first half of the year, with expectations of resuming production in the second half. Overseas, there is limited new capacity, and it is difficult for Europe to have large-scale resumption of production. According to data from aluminium show, global primary aluminum production is expected to be 71.53 million tons in 2024, an increase of 1.7% year-on-year. The recent explosion at a fuel depot in Guinea is fermenting, and it is understood that Guinea can still normally ship bauxite to China. This event may temporarily affect domestic import mine supply, and it is important to continue tracking the situation.
On the demand side, the increase in aluminum usage is still in the fields of photovoltaics and transportation. In 2024, the use of aluminum in photovoltaics and automobiles is expected to increase to 23.09 million tons, an 11% increase year-on-year. The increase in demand from real estate and home appliances is limited. Looking at the market, domestic and international demand is expected to grow in parallel. The economic growth rate in China is slowing down, with an estimated aluminum demand growth rate of 2.4%. Overseas, the United States is more likely to achieve a soft landing, entering an interest rate cut cycle next year, with real estate demand beginning to recover, and an estimated 1.2% growth rate in overseas aluminum demand in 2024. Global primary aluminum demand is expected to increase by 1.9% in 2024.
By analyzing the global supply of electrolytic aluminum, it is estimated that the global primary aluminum production will be 71.53 million tons in 2024, a 1.7% increase year-on-year. With the arrival of the domestic capacity ceiling, the supply growth over the next three years will mainly come from Asia outside of China. It is estimated that the global production in 2025 and 2026 will maintain a year-on-year growth rate of 3.2%.